Australian exporting and importing businesses and their bankers are reeling from another surprise change in US trade policy that has shaken the foundations of the international customs system. Meanwhile, new US pension fund laws could make it easier for Aussie firms to attract capital from US investors.

As FedEx regional vice president, Peter Langley has a particular view of the way US President Donald Trump’s proposed and actual tariffs are playing out.

“Australian businesses selling into the US need to make sure they provide all necessary information for US Customs when they set up international shipments. They need to be upfront with their US-based buyers about customs duties and taxes to help avoid delays, surprises and frustration. Long-term, businesses that are prepared and can adapt quickly will be the ones that succeed,” says Langley.

The US’s recent suspension of the duty-free de minimis rules introduce new obligations and considerations for Aussie businesses that send lower-value shipments directly to US customers. This includes many e-commerce businesses that are accustomed to easier rules.

Until the suspension, shipments entering the US with a value at or below US$800 were not subject to duties and taxes. The rules enabled these parcels to enter the country under simplified customs processes.

The suspension of the de minimis requirements means commercial shipments valued at or under $800 are now subject to US customs duties and taxes. These shipments also require additional information and paperwork to clear US customs.

For Australian banks and financial institutions that process international payments, changes to the US de minimis rules may increase compliance requirements and costs for e-commerce and other transactions involving low-value goods.

This may mean banks need to enhance their systems to manage increased transaction values and facilitate complex customs declarations for these now-dutiable goods. It could also mean handling a growing number of potential payment disputes arising from unexpected costs charged to consumers.

The amended de minimis rules are just one regulatory hurdle local traders are grappling with. Other recent changes to US trade policy could drive up costs for Australian manufacturers that rely on imported materials or components from these markets.

“This may lead to increased production costs and potentially higher prices for consumers in Australia. This could mean Australian-made or distributed goods are less competitive compared to US-based alternatives. It has potential impacts on export viability, supply chain costs and broader market strategies,” says international trade expert, SMARTECH Business Systems’ CEO, Vincent Nair.

For retailers, a challenge will be rising costs across their supply chains.

“The suspension of the de minimis trade exemption directly impacts e-commerce retailers who rely on low-cost fulfilment models, increasing their operational expenses. Retailers may need to reconsider their pricing models, procurement strategies and inventory management practices,” says Nair.

Higher tariffs and trade policy uncertainty are likely to result in slower global growth and lower global prices for traded goods, alongside changes to the pattern of trade.

“Recent international developments could influence the demand for Australian exports and the prices of imports, affecting Australian trade flows,” says Nair.

US trade announcements are just one aspect of broader economic changes taking place. Other moves include cuts to immigration, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which incorporates tax cuts, de-regulation and government agency restructuring.

“These changes have taken place quickly and with a significant element of unpredictability. High uncertainty creates challenges for economic growth. Some economists describe the changes as a supply shock within the US economy. This can lead to demand shock from the rest of the world,” says Andrew Stone, a partner with law firm, Holding Redich.

Despite the wobbly economic and policy outlook, US growth rose to 3.3 per cent on an annualised basis in the second quarter of 2025.

“Australian economic exposure to the US is limited relative to Australia’s exposure to the Chinese economy, so we are finding our network is more focused on the state of the Chinese economy. Some economists have suggested the Chinese economy is facing structural challenges due to a broad and sustained fall in the Chinese property market, that is not being offset completely via renewed Chinese infrastructure spending. Ultimately there are concerns that the Chinese economy is constrained by weak population growth, so we are seeing clients very focused on China,” says Stone.

Looking at major touchpoints for the rest of the year, experts are bullish about the upside of upcoming US regulatory changes for Australian businesses.

“We are focused on the de-regulation aspects of the changes being made in the US,” says Stone.

One change is permitting US 401(k) investors, that is, beneficiaries of employer-sponsored retirement accounts, to invest in private market investments.

“Private market investment strategies provide important opportunities for diversification. The opening of the $3 trillion 401(k) market to those strategies may lead to additional demand for Australian real estate, infrastructure and other private asset classes,” says Stone.