Kelvin Davidson spoke to the FINSIA Podcast after releasing the data specialist latest Pain and Gain report and predicted a soft landing for the property market.
“If there’s one line to describe it, it would be weaker but not weak,” he said.
“The numbers here are still pretty solid for property owners.
“In the second quarter, only about 2% were sold at a price below what the owner originally paid. That's that pain. And there are still gains out there to be made.”
Kelvin says those who have been hit with a loss on their property purchase are likely to be down to changes in personal circumstances, like a death or divorce, which result in owners needing to sell sooner than they expected to.
Reflecting on how long the downturn is likely to last, he said: “There are some near-term challenges for sure and we're seeing house prices down 7 - 8%.
“We might be halfway through the ultimate downturn - both in terms of duration in scale.
“I think we're looking at house price falls into the first half of next year, possibly a floor a bottoming out in the second half of next year.
“They might stay flat for a little period of time thereafter before the next cycle starts off.
“So I expect we'll see a bit more pain and a bit less gain over the next 12 to 15 months.”
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